Explaining the geography of the populist radical right: The effects of local immigration and unemployment on support for the Norwegian Progress Party 1989 – 2017.

The large sub-national variation in populist radical right (PRR) support has increasingly attracted scholars’ attention in recent years. Prominent theories explain PRR voting as a reaction to structural developments. One line of argument sees PRR support as a revolt from areas experiencing economic decline. Another focuses on the PRR’s appeal in places with high immigration. I put these arguments to test and investigate whether local unemployment and immigration play a role in people’s decision to vote for Norwegian PRR party Fremskrittspartiet (Frp). Motivated by the lack of knowledge on how these structural developments affect voting, I also investigate two types of mechanisms. First, I test whether the effects of changes within a municipality and enduring differences between municipalities contribute differently to Frp support. Second, I investigate whether issue salience plays a role in mediating the effects of local immigration and unemployment on Frp voting. In order to empirically assess these assumptions, I conduct two types of analyses. First, using panel data on all Norwegian municipalities from 1989 to 2017, I test the general relationship between immigration, unemployment and electoral support of Frp at the municipality level. Second, by combining these panel data with geocoded survey data at the individual level, I perform a longitudinal multi-level analysis of how individual voters’ decision to vote Frp is affected by the immigration and unemployment context of their municipality. The results confirm that changes in structural factors within an area is the main driver of Frp support. Frp benefits from initial increases in immigration within a municipality. Increased salience of the immigration issue can explain the entire effect of local immigration on Frp voting. Contrary to major theories, this thesis also finds robust evidence that Frp thrives in areas that are experiencing an economic upturn. This effect goes beyond what is explained by issue salience