Decadal trend of plankton community change and habitat shoaling in the Arctic gateway recorded by planktonic foraminifera

The Fram Strait plays a crucial role in regulating the heat and sea-ice dynamics in the Arctic. In response to the ongoing global warming, the marine biota of this Arctic gateway is experiencing significant changes with increasing advection of Atlantic species. The footprint of this ‘Atlantification’ has been identified in isolated observations across the plankton community, but a systematic, multi-decadal perspective on how regional climate change facilitates the invasion of Atlantic species and affects the ecology of the resident species is lacking. Here we evaluate a series of 51 depth-resolved plankton profiles collected in the Fram Strait during seven surveys between 1985 and 2015, using planktonic foraminifera as a proxy for changes in both the pelagic community composition and species vertical habitat depth. The time series reveals a progressive shift towards more Atlantic species, occurring independently of changes in local environmental conditions. We conclude that this trend is reflecting higher production of the Atlantic species in the Nordic Seas, from where they are advected into the Fram Strait. At the same time, we observe the ongoing extensive sea-ice export from the Arctic and associated cooling-induced decline in density and habitat shoaling of the subpolar Turborotalita quinqueloba, whereas the resident Neogloboquadrina pachyderma persists. As a result, the planktonic foraminiferal community and vertical structure in the Fram Strait shift to a new state, driven by both remote forcing of the Atlantic invaders and local climatic changes acting on the resident species. The strong summer export of Arctic sea ice has so far buffered larger plankton transformation. We predict that if the sea-ice export will decrease, the Arctic gateway will experience rapid restructuring of the pelagic community, even in the absence of further warming. Such a large change in the gateway region will likely propagate into the Arctic proper