The coming economic, social, and political apocalypse?

The predictions of the adverse effects of global warming on climate change are now accepted by scientists and decision-makers. Less attention has been given to the economic, social, and political consequences. The economic consequences have been examined but the social and political consequences have not been sufficiently analysed or even contemplated. The three interact: the economic consequences of climate change will have social and political effects, which in turn will have dramatic implications for economies and economic well-being. The possible, and uncertain, economic consequences are summarised, drawing for instance on the Stern Review, and their possible, and even less certain, social and political consequences are analysed. The greatest losses and costs will be suffered by poor countries because their economies rely more on nature and weather. There is a risk that they will be driven down economically, so challenging the capacity of their governments to address the new poverty and maintain public services, and some will become fragile or even failed states. Coping with internal migration is likely to become a central policy issue. However, international migration to neighbouring and to richer countries is likely to become dominant, as income gaps widen and migrant flows are assisted by diasporas in the destination countries. The defensive policy responses of the rich countries can be predicted. Democratic politics will centre on the tensions and divisions coming from economic damage and rapid social change. The calamity will drag countries into both cooperation and conflict with each other. The effects of competition on sending countries, contiguous countries, and destination countries are examined. Three case studies are sketched to suggest how climate damage might play out: of southern Africa as a poor drought-prone region, Germany as a rich, host country, and Turkey as a neighbouring host and transit country. This paper is entirely predictive but the scenario has been presented in the fervent hope that it will not happen.