Why Do Asylum-Seekers Migrate?

Europe has recently been seeing the “migrant crisis”, with 1.3 million asylum applications in 2015, which is more than double compared to 2014. Since two-thirds of the asylum applications are composed of three nationalities, Syrians, Iraqis, and Afghans, the surge of asylum applications is often accounted for by the increasing number of conflicts, especially in Syria. Nevertheless, there is a paucity of research to back up this assumption. This vague understanding of asylum-seekers could be the reason why European governments’ policies have sometimes been accused of being ineffective or having counter-productive effects. The main purpose of this study is to understand why asylum-seekers migrate. What makes them leave their countries of origin? What are the determinants that asylum-seekers rely on to choose a particular destination country? Do the immigration policies influence asylum-seekers’ decisions? Are there any differences between previous migrations and the current migrant crisis? The study is mainly conducted through quantitative analyses based on an econometrics model. To be precise, the time series cross-section analysis (TSCS) or the panel data analysis, using fixed effects and random effects, are employed to understand the statistical significance and the degree of influence of variables that explain the determinants of asylum applications. The results show that previous migrations were based on the economic needs of asylum-seekers, who were choosing a destination country based on how comfortable it was to live in, such as those countries that share language and colonial relationship. Nevertheless, the analysis has revealed that current asylum-seekers are mainly driven by the violence of conflicts in their countries of origin, and choose a destination country that offers immediate protection and residence. The results also shows the importance of the stock of past migrants, which infers the existence of smuggling networks or familial and community networks that help new migrants to enter the destination country. Furthermore, the study concludes that asylum policies have not been having much influence on asylum-seekers’ migration decisions. By revealing why asylum-seekers migrate, this study hopes to contribute to the better understanding of the migration, asylum-seekers’ better conditions to receive protections, and European governments’ better management of migration flows