Future climate of Africa

Globally, climate change is causing average temperatures to rise and the intensity and frequency of extreme events to increase. However, these changes will not be uniform globally (Sillmann et al., 2013) and will have differential impacts based on population vulnerability. Across Africa, changes to seasonal rainfall and temperature extremes will have significant impacts on society, particularly those strongly dependent on seasonal rains for agriculture. Moreover, these impacts will vary across the region due to a range of local factors. Support for agricultural development programmes, e.g., research into how to meet the challenges of food production in a changing climate (Fig. 1.1), are key in integrating the impacts of climate change into long-term planning. In parallel, support is needed for decision makers to help them to work under conditions of uncertainty and help develop ways for local stakeholders to access and assess information as more data and knowledge become available. The contribution of this expert opinion is to provide a synthesis of the current and future climate risks for Africa and the range of impacts in the medium- to long-term. It also seeks to highlight areas where research and resources might need to be focused in the future, to limit or avoid negative climate risks to socio-economic development