Predicting the future: Clinical outcome prediction with machine learning in neuropsychiatry

Treatment of psychiatric disorders relies on subjective measures of symptoms to establish diagnoses and lacks an objective way to determine which treatments might work best for an individual patient. To improve the current state-of-the-art and to be able to help a growing number of patients with mental health disorders more efficiently, the discovery of biomarkers predictive of treatment outcome and prognosis is needed. In addition, the application of machine learning methods provides an improvement over the standard group-level analysis approach since it allows for individualized predictions. Machine learning models can also be tested for their generalization capabilities to new patients which would quantify their potential for clinical applicability. In this thesis, these approaches were combined and investigated across a set of different neuropsychiatric disorders. The investigated applications included the prediction of disease course in patients with anxiety disorders, early detection of behavioural frontotemporal dementia in at-risk individuals using structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), prediction of deep-brain stimulation treatment-outcome in patients with therapy-resistant obsessive compulsive disorder using structural MRI and prediction of treatment-response for adult and youth patients with posttraumatic stress disorder using resting-state functional MRI scans. Across all studies this thesis showed that machine learning methods combined with neuroimaging data can be utilized to identify biomarkers predictive of future clinical outcomes in neuropsychiatric disorders. Promising as it seems, this can only be the first step for the inclusion of these new approaches into clinical practice as further studies utilizing larger sample sizes are necessary to validate the discovered biomarkers