Salinity and Water Temperature as Predictors of Bottlenose Dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) Encounter Rates in Upper Galveston Bay, Texas

Bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) that inhabit urban estuaries like Galveston Bay, Texas, are exposed to cumulative stressors including pollution, fisheries, shipping, freshwater inflows, and construction operations. With continuing development, it is imperative to understand the key environmental variables that make the Galveston Bay estuary suitable habitat for this protected species. The Galveston Bay Dolphin Research Program conducted monthly photo identification surveys of bottlenose dolphins in a previously understudied 186 km2 area in upper Galveston Bay (UGB). To understand occurrence patterns in this region, we calculated monthly encounter rates of dolphins (dolphins/km) for four consecutive years (2016–2019). Using multiple linear regression models, we investigated the relationship between encounter rates, and water temperature and salinity. Monthly encounter rates ranged from 0.00 to 1.23 dolphins/km with an average of 0.34 dolphins/km (SE = 0.05). Over 80% of the variance was explained by the predictor variables water temperature and salinity (R2 = 0.820). Water temperature had a positive linear effect on encounter rates at over 23.37°C (SE = 1.42). Accordingly, higher encounter rates occurred during months with warm temperatures (May–September) compared to cooler months (November–April), indicating a predictable yearly movement pattern. Moreover, salinity was a highly significant predictor variable, with encounter rates dropping linearly with decreases in salinity. Higher numbers of dolphins are found in UGB during summer, but an exodus of dolphins occurs with low salinity levels, regardless of the time of year and water temperature. These findings should be considered during infrastructure projects (i.e., flood gate system) that may alter dolphin habitat and prey availability