Some Possible Hydro-Economic Effects of Ilisu Dam Project Within the Overall Effects of Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP)

Aastract Economically, the Ilisu dam project, together with the other components of GAP, is a logical response to population growth which the Republic of Turkey witnessed over the period 1950-2006, and witnessing now (2008), as well as the developmental efforts undertaken by the Turkish government to enable the economy to absorb the growing labour force, and to reduce income and living inequality within the GAP region and between this region and the other regions of the Turkish economy. This necessitated, among other things, the expansion of agricultural productive capacity, thus actual agricultural production, not only to feed the rapidly increasing population as well as supplying the other sectors with agricultural inputs, but to avoid the possible worsening of the problem of priceinflation and current account deficit in Turkey. The growing population base, and the associated developmental efforts conducted by the Turkish government in the recent past, at present, and in the foreseeable future all are associated with a given average annual flow of the Euphrates–Tigris rivers (within Turkey) of no more than 55 billion cubic meter. Based on this fact, and other data, the author argues that - in the absence of a binding water sharing and water * Ph.D. in Economics, University of Southampton, U. K. (12 ) مركز الدراسات الإقليمية دراسات إقليمية 5 management agreement of the Euphrates-Tigris flow between Turkey and Iraq – if Turkey were to go ahead with the Ilisu dam, along with the other components of the GAP, the combined average annual flow of the Euphrates-Tigris rivers would be reduced, at the Iraqi borders, to some 40% of the 1960-1970 average flow. The main conclusion of this study is, therefore, as follows: in the absence of the aforementioned agreement, the construction of Ilisu dam, along with the other components of GAP, may enable Turkey to achieve a sort of sustainable agricultural and economic development. However, that development will very likely be at the expense of agricultural development in Iraq… One of the victims of such "sustainable development", in Turkey, will almost certainly be the reconstruction project of the marshlands of Lower Mesopotamia. Keywords: Population growth, Agricultural productive capacity, Irrigated land, Cereal output, Marshlands, Annual rate of flow, Ecosystem, Population conference, Binding water agreement