Assessing the impacts of climate change on aerobic rice production using the DSSAT-CERES-Rice model

This study assessed the impacts of climate change on aerobic rice production using the DSSAT-CERES-Rice model. Actual data observed from four cropping seasons in two sites were used for calibration and validation. Four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios were used to simulate climate change. The optimum planting windows were simulated across these scenarios. Results showed that DSSAT-CERES-Rice could adequately simulate aerobic rice production. Changes in seasonal rainfall and increases in temperature especially during dry seasons adversely affected aerobic rice production. Reduction of rainfall during the wet seasons favored aerobic rice production. Yield losses are twice as large as gains. Changes in climate could cause yield improvements to decline from 83% to 53% and yield reductions to increase from 150% to 177% towards the end of the 21st century. Selecting the best planting windows could optimize production to avoid huge economic losses. Optimum planting windows were simulated during normal, dry, and wet climate conditions. The derived set of genetic coefficients could be used to assess various aerobic rice farm crop and nutrient management strategies as well as other climate and soil conditions. The long-term projections on aerobic rice production could guide policy and decision-makers on designing long-term climate change adaptation and mitigation plans and programs. HIGHLIGHTS This paper pioneered the assessment of climate change impacts on aerobic rice using the DSSAT-CERES-Rice model.; The DSSAT-CERES-Rice model has been proved to adequately mimic aerobic rice production.; Optimum planting windows across climate change scenarios during the normal, dry, and wet years were identified for dry and wet seasons which can be used as reference for farmers, policy-, and decision-makers for climate change adaptation and mitigation.; Impacts of climate change on aerobic rice production have been estimated to cause a decline in yield gains by as much as 83% and an increase in yield reductions by as much as 177%.; The derived genetic coefficients can be used to assess impacts of other climatic conditions and crop management on aerobic rice production.