Water resources and flooding risk in Kumamoto based on observed hydrologic data analysis

Variability and change of precipitation were investigated in Kumamoto on Kyushu Island in southwestern Japan, to assess water resources and flooding risk. Annual precipitation, annual maximum daily precipitation, and annual maximum hourly precipitation have increased over the period from 1891 to 2018 (128 years). Trends are 26.2 mm per decade, 6.07 mm/day per decade, and 2.17 mm/h/decade, respectively. Precipitation in the rainy season (June and July) is on average 37% (ranging from 12 to 59%) of annual precipitation for the 128-year period. Maximum daily precipitation in a year occurred at Kumamoto in the rainy season in 92/128 (72%) of the years of observation from 1891 to 2018, in the typhoon (August to November) season in 23/128 (18%), and in the March to May season in 12/128 (10%). This indicates that the rainy monsoon season poses the largest daily flooding risk. A wavelet analysis revealed that from 1891 to 2018 annual precipitation and daily maximum precipitation fluctuate with 2 and 4 years periods, which may be related to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It is likely that air temperature rises, ENSO and topographical characteristics contributed to an increase in precipitation in the period. The analysis also showed that typhoons hitting or approaching Kumamoto have significantly affected annual precipitation and annual maximum daily precipitation, while the interval between typhoons affecting Kumamoto has been getting longer since the 1970s. HIGHLIGHTS Annual precipitation, annual maximum daily precipitation, and annual maximum hourly precipitation in Kumamoto, on Kyushu Island in southwest Japan, have increased from 1891 to 2018 (128 years). Trends are 26.2 mm per decade, 6.07 mm/day per decade, and 2.17 mm/h/decade, respectively. All three trends are statistically significant at the 1% level.; Precipitation in the rainy season (June and July) is on average 37% (ranging from 12 to 59%) of annual precipitation over the period from 1891 to 2018. The correlation between rainy season precipitation and annual precipitation is strong (R2 = 0.66, Figure 3).; Maximum daily precipitation in a year occurred at Kumamoto in the wet monsoon (June and July) season in 92/128 (72%) of the years of observation from 1889 to 2018, in the typhoon (Aug to Nov) season in 23/128 (18%) of the years of observation, and in the March to May season in 12/128 (10%) of the years of observation. This is also shown in Figure 5 and indicates that the rainy monsoon season poses the largest daily flooding risk.; A wavelet analysis revealed that precipitation in Kumamoto fluctuated from 1891 to 2018 with 2–4 years as periods, which may indicate a relationship to ENSO. It is likely that ENSO plays an important role in annual precipitation in the periods of 1890–1900, 1920–1930, 1950–1960, 1970s, and 1990–2010, because annual precipitation in a given year becomes necessarily higher or lower in phase with the ENSO.; The analysis also showed that typhoons hitting or approaching Kumamoto have significantly contributed to annual precipitation and annual maximum daily precipitation, while the interval between typhoons affecting Kumamoto has been getting slightly longer since the 1970s.