Simulation and assessment of a water pollution accident caused by phenol leakage

Frequent occurrence of water pollution accidents has caused serious ecological and environmental damage. The purpose of this study was to assess the impacts of water pollution accidents on the human body and the ecosystem and to use a new calculation method of mean absolute deviation (MAD) to measure model error. A water pollution accident caused by the phenol leakage was simulated using the Environmental Damage Model of Water Pollution Accidents. In order to analyze the impacts of the phenol leakage event on the human body and the ecosystem, pollution level and its classification method were defined, and the result showed that the leakage event of phenol could have a destructive impact and present great danger in some areas, which covered 32–56% of the study area. The measurement of the model error indicated that lower resolution meant smaller MAD. Quantity Deviation and Hierarchical Deviation did not change with the resolution, and low resolution meant small Pixel Deviation. MAD not only reflected the deviation between layers but also embodied the impact of individual data on the whole deviation. Highlights A new calculation method of mean absolute deviation is used to measure the model error.; Lower resolution means smaller mean absolute deviation.; Mean absolute deviation reflects the deviation between layers.; The pollution level and its classification method are defined for the first time.; The phenol leakage event causes destructive impacts and great dangers in some areas.