Analysis of Progression Time in Pancreatic Cancer including Carcinoma In Situ Based on Magnetic Resonance Cholangiopancreatography Findings

Background: Pancreatic cancer (PC) exhibits extremely rapid growth; however, it remains largely unknown whether the early stages of PC also exhibit rapid growth speed equivalent to advanced PC. This study aimed to investigate the natural history of early PCs through retrospectively assessing pre-diagnostic images. Methods: We examined the data of nine patients, including three patients with carcinoma in situ (CIS), who had undergone magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP) to detect solitary main pancreatic duct (MPD) stenosis >1 year before definitive PC diagnosis. We retrospectively analyzed the time to diagnosis and first-time tumor detection from the estimated time point of first-time MPD stenosis detection without tumor lesion. Results: The median tumor size at diagnosis and the first-time tumor detection size were 14 and 7.5 mm, respectively. The median time to diagnosis and first-time tumor detection were 26 and 49 months, respectively. Conclusions: No studies have investigated the PC history, especially that of early PCs, including CIS, based on the initial detection of MPD stenosis using MRCP. Assessment of a small number of patients showed that the time to progression can take several years in the early PC stages. Understanding this natural history is very important in the clinical setting