Three-Dimensional Parameters of the Earth-Impacting CMEs Based on the GCS Model

When a CME arrives at the Earth, it will interact with the magnetosphere, sometimes causing hazardous space weather events. Thus, the study of CMEs which arrived at Earth (hereinafter, Earth-impacting CMEs) has attracted much attention in the space weather and space physics communities. Previous results have suggested that the three-dimensional parameters of CMEs play a crucial role in deciding whether and when they reach Earth. In this work, we use observations from the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) to study the three-dimensional parameters of 71 Earth-impacting CMEs from the middle of 2008 to the end of 2012. We find that the majority Earth-impacting CMEs originate from the region of [30S,30N] × [40E,40W] on the solar disk; Earth-impacting CMEs are more likely to have a central propagation angle (CPA) no larger than half-angular width, a negative correlation between velocity and acceleration, and propagation time is inversely related to velocity. Based on our findings, we develop an empirical statistical model to forecast the arrival time of the Earth-impacting CME. Also included is a comparison between our model and the aerodynamic drag model