A millennium-long climate history of erosive storms across the Tiber River Basin, Italy, from 725 to 2019 CE

Abstract Rainfall erosivity drives damaging hydrological events with significant environmental and socio-economic impacts. This study presents the world’s hitherto longest time-series of annual rainfall erosivity (725–2019 CE), one from the Tiber River Basin (TRB), a fluvial valley in central Italy in which the city of Rome is located. A historical perspective of erosive floods in the TRB is provided employing a rainfall erosivity model based on documentary data, calibrated against a sample (1923–1964) of actual measurement data. Estimates show a notable rainfall erosivity, and increasing variability, during the Little Ice Age (here, ~ 1250–1849), especially after c. 1495. During the sixteenth century, erosive forcing peaked at > 3500 MJ mm hm–2 h–1 yr–1 in 1590, with values > 2500 MJ mm hm–2 h–1 yr–1 in 1519 and 1566. Rainfall erosivity continued into the Current Warm Period (since ~ 1850), reaching a maximum of ~ 3000 MJ mm hm–2 h–1 yr–1 in the 1940s. More recently, erosive forcing has attenuated, though remains critically high (e.g., 2087 and 2008 MJ mm hm–2 h–1 yr–1 in 1992 and 2005, respectively). Comparison of the results with sediment production (1934–1973) confirms the model’s ability to predict geomorphological effects in the TRB, and reflects the role of North Atlantic circulation dynamics in central Italian river basins