Coordinated Population Forecast for Marion County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2021 – 2071

How to Read this Report This report should be read with reference to the documents listed below, which are downloadable on the Forecast Program website (https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts). • Methods and Data for Developing Coordinated Population Forecasts: Provides a detailed description and discussion of the forecast methods employed. This document also describes the assumptions that feed into these methods and determine the forecast output. • Forecast Tables: Provides complete tables of population forecast numbers by county and all sub‐areas within each county for each five‐year interval of the forecast period (2021‐2071). County Summary: Marion county\u27s economic base is government, agriculture, food processing, and manufacturing. The county centers on the county seat, Salem, which is home to about half the county\u27s population. Based on the general and housing surveys collected by the Population Research Center, steady housing developments in Salem and communities within commuting distance to Salem/Portland/Albany are expected to continue. Smaller cities seem to grow based on availability of annexed/annexable undeveloped land within their UGB usually used for single family residential (SFR) subdivisions. Growing cities also cite low infrastructure barriers to development. Some smaller cities proposed infrastructure development plans that are taking o