Coordinated Population Forecast for Polk County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2021 – 2071

How to Read this Report This report should be read with reference to the documents listed below, which are downloadable on the Forecast Program website (https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts). • Methods and Data for Developing Coordinated Population Forecasts: Provides a detailed description and discussion of the forecast methods employed. This document also describes the assumptions that feed into these methods and determine the forecast output. • Forecast Tables: Provides complete tables of population forecast numbers by county and all sub‐areas within each county for each five‐year interval of the forecast period (2021‐2071). Polk County has roughly 84,000 people in 2020. The economic base is agriculture (particularly wine), forestry, and manufacturing. Western Oregon University in the City of Monmouth attracts about 5,000 students and is a major employer. Monmouth and Independence are steadily adding housing units to accommodate people moving there for employment and/or education. People that work in Monmouth could contribute to nearby cities’ growth. Positive net migration remained relatively strong in Polk County according to recent data. Net migration rate has been high compared to that of the state in most age groups, which contributed to the robust population growth in the forecast