An analysis into the invigoration of a rail corridor through private sector investment and transit oriented development principles

Thesis (MEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2021.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The steady decline in passenger volumes using the passenger railway network in South Africa since the implementation of the Transport Deregulation act in 1988 has escalated to a steep decline in passenger volumes since the early 2000’s. Train set loss, out-of-date technology, maintenance issues, operational inefficiency, a lack of skills development and safety and security issues have drastically reduced passenger utilisation across all public passenger rail networks in the country. The Passenger Rail Agency of South Africa (PRASA) has recognised the passenger decrease trend and is now actively trying to reverse the tide. PRASA unveiled a variety of key programmes in the 2020/2022 PRASA Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) Corporate Plan aimed at revitalising the national public passenger railway service by adding 3600 new rolling stock units to the current passenger train fleet and modernizing 135 stations along priority corridors (PRASA, 2018). The acquisition of new rolling stock and modernisation of stations are vital in reversing decades of neglect towards rail-based transport. This supply invigoration will need to be accompanied by a paradigm shift in how current and potential rail users view passenger rail transport if the demand for rail services is to be successfully and sustainably re-invigorated. This study analyses the ability of private sector investment and Transit Oriented Development (TOD) principles to re-invigorate passenger rail and provide the vital paradigm shift in how the public views passenger rail in South Africa. The analysis is conducted by assessing the anticipated effects of Stellenbosch Bridge on rail utilisation trends through a computer model of a section of the transport network. Stellenbosch Bridge is a proposed development designed using Transit Oriented Development principles located adjacent to a section of the railway line in the Cape Winelands. The proposed development will have direct access to the rail network, connecting Stellenbosch Bridge to surrounding suburbs, towns, and cities such as the Northern Suburbs of Cape Town, Stellenbosch, and Paarl. Stellenbosch Bridge provides an opportunity to assess the effects of a Transit Oriented Development on rail utilisation as it is located in a transit corridor which provides both road and rail movement alternatives. A variety of scenarios were developed to investigate the effects of revisions to passenger accessibility and the rail system itself, which are modelled by altering the way in which people view transport options in the study area. Analysis of the output is focused on the station usage rate and fluctuation in passenger volumes for each scenario set. A thorough study of the results produced by the simulation model allows the conclusion to be made that Transit Oriented Development principles and private sector investment can indeed re-invigorate rail and provide the required paradigm shift in how potential and current users view the passenger rail service.AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die passasiersvolume van Suid-Afrika se passasierspoornetwork het as gevolg van die Wet op Vervoerderegulering in 1988 geleidelik begin afneem. Na afloop van die vroeë 2000’s het hierdie volume egter skerp begin daal. Die verlies aan treinstelle, verouderde tegnologie, instandhoudingskwessies, operasionele ondoeltreffendheid, ʼn gebrek aan vaardigheidsontwikkeling en veiligheids- en sekuriteitskwessies het die passasiersbenutting van alle openbare passasiersspoornetwerke in die land drasties verminder. Die Passasierspooragentskap van Suid-Afrika (PRASA) het hierdie agteruitgang geïdentifiseer en is tans aktief besig om die kwessie aan te spreek. PRASA het tydens die 2020/2022 PRASA Mediumtermyn Bestedingsraamwerk (MTEF) Korporatiewe Plan ʼn verskeidenheid sleutelprogramme onthul wat daarop gemik is om die nasionale openbare passasierstreindiens te vernuwe. Vir hierdie vernuwing sal 3 600 nuwe rollende voorraadeenhede by die huidige passasiersvloot bygevoeg word en 135 stasies langs prioriteitskorridors (PRASA, 2018) gemoderniseer word. Nuwe voorraad en die modernisering van stasies is noodsaaklik om dekades se verwaarlosing van spoorvervoer om te keer. Dit sal egter gepaard moet gaan met ʼn paradigmaverskuiwing van hoe huidige en potensiële spoorverbruikers passasiersspoorvervoer sien. Eers daarna sal die vervoerdiens op ʼn suksesvolle, volhoubare wyse vernuwe word. Hierdie ondersoek ontleed die vermoë van beleggings- en Transito-Georiënteerde Ontwikkelingsbeginsels (TOD) om passasierspoordiens te verbeter en die belangrike paradigmaverskuiwing te verskaf in hoe die publiek passasierspoor in Suid-Afrika beskou. Die ontleding is afgelê deur die verwagte uitwerking van Stellenbosch Bridge op die spoorbenuttingstendense te evalueer. Die evaluering het ʼn gedeelte van die spoor en padnetwerk met behulp van rekenaarprogramme ontleed. Stellenbosch Bridge is ʼn voorgestelde ontwikkeling wat met Transito-Georiënteerde Ontwikkelingsbeginsels ontwerp word. Die ontwikkeling is langs ʼn gedeelte van die spoorlyn in die Kaapse Wynland geleë. Die voorgestelde ontwikkeling sal direkte toegang tot die spoornetwerk hê wat die Stellenbosch Bridge ontwikkeling met omliggende voorstede, dorpe en stede soos die Noordelike Voorstede van Kaapstad, Stellenbosch en die Paarl verbind. Stellenbosch Bridge bied ʼn geleentheid om die gevolge van ʼn Transito-Georiënteerde Ontwikkeling op spoorbenutting te evalueer, aangesien dit in ʼn transitokorridor geleë is wat beide pad- en spooralternatiewe bied. ʼn Verskeidenheid scenario's wat ontwerp is om die effek van hersiening van die toeganklikheid van passasiers en spoorstelsel self te ondersoek, word gemodelleer deur die manier waarop persone vervoeropsies in die studiegebied sien, te verander. Analise van die uitset fokus op die stasie verbruikerskoers en verandering in passasiersvolume vir elke scenario.Master