Analysis of export of agricultural products in the context of the global food crisis

Purpose. The purpose of this article is to study the nature, main trends and problematic aspects of realization of the export potential of agricultural production in the countries of South America, OECD, North America and Europe in the context of aggravating food crisis. Methodology / approach. Theoretical and empirical methods of cognition are used in their dialectical combination. The main methods used in this study are statistical analysis, index, graphical and analytical methods, methods for estimating structural dynamic shifts, comparisons and monographic method. The study also involved general methods of economic research, in particular: theoretical generalization and comparison, induction and deduction are used in revealing the content of the export potential of agricultural production, drawing conclusions; the current condition and tendencies of development of export of agricultural products is estimated by means of synthesis and the economic analysis; graphic, economic, statistical and interstate comparisons are used to analyse the export of agricultural products; statistical methods (grouping) are applied to assess the domestic and external export potential of agricultural products in the regional context. The influence of external and domestic export potential on wheat exports is studied by regression analysis. Results. The need to ensure food security by countries around the world urges the importance of the agricultural sector as a catalyst for economic development, sources of foreign exchange earnings, investment direction, etc. The study of agricultural specialization led to the conclusion that wheat and sugar are goods with the highest export potential. It is substantiated that the countries of South America, OECD, North America and Europe have the highest level of fulfilment of export potential of agricultural production, and African countries are import-dependent. Besides, the low export orientation of Africa and Asia due to the peculiarities of their natural and climatic conditions is established based on the assessment of export-import operations in the regional context. The internal and external export potential of each of the regions is analysed. The direct correlation between the exports volume and area of land used for wheat cultivation, as well as with its yield, was established through the correlation and regression analysis. Originality / scientific novelty. The scientific novelty of the results of the study is that the authors were the first who carried out a comprehensive analysis of the potential capacity and ability to increase exports of agricultural products in the world and by product groups. The essence and features of economic representation of export potential of agricultural products at the international and national levels are determined. The main factors influencing the development of the export potential of agricultural products in the regional context are outlined and their influence is investigated by carrying out the regression analysis. The study of domestic and foreign export potential by regions of the world is further developed. Practical value / implications. The analysis of the internal and external export potential of agricultural production was carried out in the regional context, which resulted in the identification of the main recommendations for increasing their level in order to enhance the development of the agro-industrial sector of the economy