The vulnerability of shellfish farmers to HAB events: An optimal matching analysis of closure decrees

Harmful Algal Blooms (HAB) events may have serious economic consequences for shellfish farmers. When toxic algae blooms threaten human health, public authorities may decide to shut down the farming business for a while, i.e. ranging from a few days to several weeks or months, according to the severity of risks. The impact of closures being temporally and spatially distributed, shellfish farmers can avoid the risky zones or develop adaptive strategies to mitigate the economic consequences and therefore reduce significantly their business sensitivity to HABs. A sequential approach by optimal matching analysis is applied to an original data set of shellfish area closure decrees between April 2004 and December 2018 in Southern Brittany and Pays de la Loire (France) to build a typology of 79 aquaculture zones affected by various HAB and microbiological hazards (ASP, DSP, Norovirus, E. Coli, oil spills). The hypothesis is that the degree of exposure to the HAB hazard assessed by zonal closures may not be correlated to the level of sensitivity revealed by the economic results of the shellfish farming industry which can develop avoidance strategies