Modeling in a crisis : overcoming the water sector’s data struggles to realize the potential of hydraulic models

Hydraulic models can provide efficient and cost-effective ways for water utilities to respond to changes in operating conditions (e.g., population dynamics, disasters), thereby increasing system resiliency during crises. Unfortunately, model development remains out of reach for many utilities due to high software costs, data needs, and/or personnel requirements. This study seeks to classify hydraulic modeling data needs, identify success factors and challenges associated with model development, and demonstrate the relevance of hydraulic modeling in a crisis, specifically, the COVID-19 pandemic. At the pandemic onset, development began on a hydraulic model, with the goal of understanding how shifts in spatiotemporal water demands impacted a water distribution system’s performance. Results indicate that the completed model can offer useful insight by identifying system vulnerabilities (e.g., stagnation). However, the data collection and processing challenges encountered (e.g., siloed collection efforts, lack of standardization, lengthy processing) reflect barriers to model adoption. The amount of time required to gather and process the necessary data (upwards of eight months in a best-case scenario) shows that model development cannot occur during a time-sensitive crisis, likely rendering any insight too late for use. Here, recommendations are made to address data-related challenges and support utilities in incorporating hydraulic modeling into emergency planningEnergy and Earth Resource