Upotreba indeksa suše za evaluaciju uticaja promene klime na bukove šume u Srbiji

The future of beech as the most widespread and most important tree species is an issue of great importance for the forestry in Serbia. The projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change show that in this region the average annual temperature for the A2 scenario could increase by as much as 3.8 degrees Celsius in the 21st century. The objective of this paper was to quantify changes in aridity in Serbia over the past 50 years by the aims of forest aridity index (FAI). Obtained results showed that the period 1981-2010 was drier in comparison with the period 1961-1990. In order to forecast the future impact of climate change on the beech forests in Serbia it was suggested using of climate projections together with forest aridity index.Budućnost bukve kao najrasprostranjenije i najznačajnije drvenaste vrste je pitanje od izuzetnog značaja za šumarsku nauku u Srbiji. Projekcije Međuvladinog panela za promenu klime govore da se na ovim prostorima prosečna godišnja temperatura po A2 scenariju može povećati za čak 3,8 °C u 21. veku. Cilj ovog rada je bio da kvantifikuje promene aridnosti u Srbiji u proteklih 50 godina upotrebom indeksa suše. Dobijeni rezultati su pokazali da je period 1981-2010 bio sušniji u odnosu na period 1961-1990. U svrhu predviđanja uticaja predstojećih klimatskih promena na šume bukve u Srbiji predloženo je korišćenje klimatskih prognoza združenih sa indeksom suše