Egyptian Agriculture in Transition: Farmer Perceptions of Risks and Adaptation Opportunities in a Changing Climate

The world is witnessing major changes in climate, progressively causing environmental, socio-economic, and political challenges. Climate variability and change are affecting agricultural sectors across the globe and are impacting the economic and social conditions of many agricultural households in rural areas, particularly in developing countries. The agricultural sector in Egypt is already under stress due to population growth and critically low water availability. Egypt is likely to suffer further negative impacts of climate change with key concerns in food security, inundation of coastal areas, environmental degradation, land and freshwater resource depletion, and declining local production and economic conditions. Adaptation to climate change is critical to reduce or avoid the more extreme adverse effects of environmental change, meet the future needs of a growing population, and maintain secure livelihoods for those who depend on agriculture for their existence. This study aims to understand the links between the phases of agrarian transition concerning perceptions of and adaptation to climate change to generate knowledge and enhance current and future local adaptation to climate change within rural Egypt. This research focuses on three components: (1) Farming households’ perceptions of risks from climate change and other changes in the agricultural sector in Egypt; (2) the in situ and ex situ strategies that farmers and their households consider suitable while adapting to climate change within their socio-economic and cultural contexts and; (3) the cultures of migration that could influence current and potential migration decisions of rural households. The study was conducted in four villages in Damietta, one of the governorates of the Nile Delta Region. This region was chosen because it is one of the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change in Egypt, particularly concerning the potential threat of sea-level rise and water resource depletion. A mixed-method research approach is adopted, with both qualitative and quantitative data accessed. Primary quantitative data were collected from 350 small landholder farmers and waged agricultural labourers using a questionnaire implemented via face-to-face interviews from April 2018 to September 2018. A further 11 in-depth interviews were conducted with key respondents to gather qualitative data about the pressing challenges facing farming households in the study area. Small landholder farmers in Damietta are experiencing climate change. They have high levels of perception of its adverse impacts on crop productivity and quality, and household incomes, yet their adaptation levels remain low. Stemming from the different paths or phases of the agrarian transition, three groups of households emerged from the initial analysis to form the basis for grouping three types of climate change adapters based on the relative contributions of agriculture to household income. The social and economic impacts of climate change appear largely unimportant for households who depend primarily on non-agricultural activities for a living. While some households are adapting in situ in Damietta, but those are the relatively wealthy households who are not wholly dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods. In contrast, those households who depend primarily on agriculture for a living have a strong perception of the negative impacts of climate change, yet, they are implementing the fewest adaptation responses - either in situ or ex situ, and are more reluctant to leave the agricultural sector or their communities. Consequently, relatively poor farming households appear to be less capable of adapting to climate change even though they form a more vulnerable cohort and potentially constitute a trapped population with little capacity to respond effectively to risk. Considering the growing demographic, economic, social, and environmental challenges in Egypt and other parts of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, many small landholder farming communities might find it difficult to sustain a living from agriculture or exploit livelihood opportunities elsewhere. This situation will be particularly critical for trapped populations who are unable or unwilling to relocate, as the repeated climate change stressors can continue to undermine their already fragile economic livelihoods and erode their asset base, making them less able to adapt either in situ or ex situ. As has already been experienced in several MENA countries, struggling rural households may form a potential latent group that could continue to drive radical social changes in Egypt if conditions for agriculture continue to deteriorate. Developing marginal communities’ capacities to adapt in situ through investing in rural education and micro-economy is of key importance both to maintain local livelihoods and the broader social fabric.Thesis (Ph.D.) -- University of Adelaide, School of Social Sciences, 202