On the Low False Positive Probabilities of Kepler Planet Candidates

We present a framework to conservatively estimate the probability that any particular planet-like transit signal observed by the Kepler mission is in fact a planet, prior to any ground-based follow-up efforts. We use Monte Carlo methods based on stellar population synthesis and Galactic structure models, and report false positive probabilities (FPPs) for every Kepler Object of Interest, assuming a 20% intrinsic occurrence rate of close-in planets in the radius range 0.5 R_⊕ 10% to