An economic analysis of the long-run decision-making behavior of Oregon otter trawl fishermen

Graduation date: 1980In the formulation of fisheries management plans required under the\ud Fisheries Conservation and Management Act of 1976 specific attention is\ud paid to the "capacity" of domestic fishing vessels to harvest the predetermined\ud optimum yield on an annual basis. Capacity is interpreted in\ud this thesis as the technical harvesting potential of the fishing fleet\ud over a specific period of time. In this context capacity reflects the\ud size and composition of the fishing fleet of interest.\ud The primary emphasis of this thesis was to identify economic, factors\ud which affect harvesting capacity in the fishery. In this regard the long-run\ud decision-making behavior of individual fishermen was of interest since\ud the size and composition of the fleet, and hence harvesting capacity, is\ud affected by specific choices made at the individual level. A theoretical\ud analysis of the long-run decision making of individual fishermen was\ud developed and was followed by an empirical application to a sample of\ud fishermen who were active in the Oregon trawl fisheries during one or more\ud of the years 1970-1975. The theoretical discussion initially centers upon\ud those aspects of the fisherman's choices which detract from the application\ud of a contemporary flexible accelerator type model to the analysis of fisherman\ud decision behavior. Instead the logit approach was chosen to analyze\ud discrete choice decisions that occur at the individual level in the Oregon\ud trawl fisheries. Logit analysis is specifically designed to handle\ud qualitative dependent variables and theoretically allows for the differences\ud in decision rules among members of the decision-making population. In\ud addition, the results of the logit analysis at the individual level can be\ud extended to the population level to examine aggregate behavior of interest\ud to fishery policy makers.\ud The logit approach was applied to a number of individual decisions\ud that affect technical capacity and the distribution of technical capacity\ud in the Oregon trawl fisheries. The first logit model analyzed the decision\ud of whether to leave or continue trawling. The next logit specification\ud described the fisherman's choice of trawl fishery where the set of fishery\ud alternatives in the Oregon case is comprised of the shrimp, groundfish and\ud combination (groundfish and shrimp) fisheries. The last decision concerned\ud the fisherman's choice of fishing vessel where vessels were classified\ud according to gross tonnage and age.\ud In general the analytical results reflect the simplicity of the initial\ud specifications. Nonetheless, the potential of the logit approach for\ud analyzing fisherman decision-making behavior was reasonably well demonstrated.\ud Finally, several modifications and extensions of the preliminary\ud work were discussed which, in the light of more specific data, would lead\ud to a more complete, predictive and policy-oriented analysis of harvesting\ud capacity in the fishery