Three essays on food security, food assistance, and migration

Graduation date: 2011This dissertation's three essays explore the determinants of food insecurity for rural farm households, the influence of rainfall variability and long-run changes in rainfall levels on the migration decisions of working-age household heads, and the distributional impacts in core and periphery regions of food assistance to households in the hinterland.\ud The first essay examines how socio-economic characteristics of households, local conditions, and public programs are associated with the probability that a farm household in rural Malawi is food insecure. The statistical analysis uses nationally representative data for 7,965 randomly-selected households interviewed during 2004/05 for the second Malawi Integrated Household Survey (IHS-2). Regressions are estimated separately for households in the north, center, and south of Malawi to account for spatial heterogeneity. Results of a Probit regression model reveal that households are less likely to be food insecure if they have more cultivated land per capita, receive agricultural field assistance, reside in a community with an irrigation scheme, and are headed by an individual with a high school degree. Factors that positively correlate with a household's food insecurity are number of household members and distance to markets.\ud The second essay uses nationally representative data from Malawi's 2004/05 Integrated Household Survey (IHS-2) to examine whether rainfall conditions influence a rural worker’s decision to make a long-term move to an urban or another rural area. Results of a Full Information Maximum Likelihood regression model reveal that (1) rainfall shocks constrain migration, most likely by making it difficult for prospective migrants to cover costs of migration, (2) migrants choose to move to communities where rainfall variability is lower, and (3) rainfall shocks have larger negative effects on the earnings of recent migrants than on long-time residents’ earnings.\ud The third essay examines how benefits from food assistance programs to needy households spillover between areas and among household income groups in the United States. We study the effect of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) in the Portland Oregon metro Core and its Periphery trade area, using a Multiregional Input- Output (MRIO) model based on a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). The analysis captures direct, indirect and induced effects of SNAP on each region and spillover effects on the other region. SNAP benefits to the lower income household classes in each region are traced to their effects on the local economy in each region, and to the effects on household income by income class. The analysis finds that (1) the economic impact on the Portland Core from a given level of SNAP benefits to households in the Periphery is greater than the economic impact in the Periphery from the same level of SNAP benefits to households in the Core; (2) high-income households benefit more than low-income households from the indirect and induced economic impact of SNAP