Nonindustrial forests, public policy and long-term timber supply in the South

Graduation date: 1984Forest Service projections of the long-term supply and demand\ud for forest products indicate that increasing importance will be\ud placed on the supply behavior of nonindustrial private forest owners\ud in the South. The inventory model on which these projections are\ud based may produce biased estimates of southern timber production,\ud however, as a result of the failure to account for changes in management\ud practices and shifts in the distribution of forest area by\ud stand type. In addition, it has not been possible to assess explicitly\ud the influence of government policies on future timber supplies.\ud The first component of this study is an age-class based inventory\ud projection model that incorporates stand establishment, thinning\ud practices and the successional tendencies of natural regeneration\ud in the South. Model projections of southern softwood inventories\ud differ considerably from previous estimates. Softwood growing\ud stock on nonindustrial private forest land will decline, by the\ud year 2000, by more than 30% from the level in 1977 when harvests\ud anticipated by the Forest Service are combined with historical\ud levels of softwood regeneration. Softwood inventories on forest\ud industry lands will increase over the same period due to pine plantation establishment.\ud The second component is a policy analysis system which is\ud applied to an examination of the long-term impact of reforestation\ud cost-share payments programs. The coefficients of policy-sensitive\ud management equations are estimated from historical data; these equations\ud are linked with the inventory model and a model of timber\ud markets. Projections with these models indicate that when program\ud funding is continued at current levels softwood stumpage and product\ud prices will increase faster than previously expected. Substantial\ud increases in cost-share payments can result in lower prices but have\ud little effect before the year 2010