Assessing African wild dog (Lycaon pictus) survival and impact on private lands: a non-spatial individual based simulation model

Thesis (M.S.)--Humboldt State University, Environmental Systems: Mathematical Modeling, 2014African wild dog (Lycaon pictus) conservation highlights many challenges of carnivore conservation. Wild dogs are at once the target of human persecution and the focus of intensive population restoration efforts. These conservation initiatives have been successful in supporting wild dog populations in South Africa???s parks, and wild dog dispersal groups are now venturing outside of the parks to form new packs. However, the presence of wild dogs on private land poses new risks for the pack and impacts land owners. For nine land scenarios (varying land size and lion/hyena population density), a non-spatial individual based simulation model was used to compare wild dog survival and impact on private land. These comparisons provide evidence that wild dog survival (pack size and pack sustainability) fluctuate with land size and carnivore population densities (although no statistically significant correlation is shown). Survival is especially sensitive to lion presence. The impact of a pack on private land is more dramatic on small land size and with low lion/hyena population densities. However, wild dog presence offers ecotourism opportunities which could potentially offset the economic burden that wild dog predation places on trophy hunting businesses