Timber harvest projections for private land in western Oregon

In this analysis, volume-flow and market-based models of the western\ud Oregon timber sector are developed. The volume-flow model\ud finds the maximum, long-term, even-flow level of cut for each ownership\ud (industry and non-industrial private forest). The market\ud model simulates the interaction of log demand and timber owner\ud supply to find the market balancing harvest quantity and log price.\ud In both models, owner decisions on the intensity of timber management\ud (silviculture) are made within the models consistent with\ud owner objectives (volume or wealth maximization). Model projections\ud suggest that western Oregon forest industry owners could\ud sustain cut at recent (1995–1999) levels, stemming the 40-yr declining\ud trend in their harvest. Nonindustrial private forest owners\ud could raise harvests to near historical peak levels. These harvests\ud could be maintained over the next five decades with no reduction\ud in the growing stock inventory. Management would continue to\ud shift toward the more intensive forms on both ownerships. The\ud average age of the inventory would decline over the projection.\ud Simulated riparian protection policies lower harvest roughly in proportion\ud to the land base reduction and raise log prices. A policy to\ud increase the minimum age of clearcut harvests would lead to large\ud near-term reductions in industrial harvest but less marked reductions\ud on NIPF lands. Prices would rise sharply in the near term.\ud Over the longer term, the policy would act to expand inventory,\ud raising harvest, and to depress prices