Projected Smoking-Related Deaths Among U.S. Youth: A 2000 Update

This paper projects the long term consequences of the rise in youth smoking in the1990s by updating the state estimates for projected smoking-related deaths among youthin the U.S. using information from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System(BRFSS) 2000 and the U.S. Census 2000. This analysis is similar to that from an earlierstudy published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Office onSmoking and Health (MMWR, 45[44], November 8, 1996). The 1996 analysis usedyoung adult smoking prevalence data from 1994 and 1995; whereas, the analysispresented here represents smoking prevalence data from 2000. The overall number ofpotential future smoking-attributable deaths among persons aged 0-17 years in 2000 was6,407,119 for the U.S., up from an estimated 5 million in 1995.Compared with the 1995 estimates, every state except Arizona shows increases inprojected smoking-related deaths among youth for 2000. This upsurge is attributable toboth increases in smoking prevalence among young adults and population aged 0-17years from 1995 to 2000. The increase in smoking prevalence among young adults wasstatistically significant in nine states including Alabama, District of Columbia, Iowa,Kentucky, Nevada, North Dakota, South Carolina, South Dakota, and Vermont.With increasing attention and funding for comprehensive, research-based tobaccocontrol programs in the U.S., one would expect smoking rates to decline over time,resulting in a reduction in projected smoking-related deaths among youth. The analysisreported here does not yet reflect this trend. This study clearly demonstrates that basedon recent smoking patterns, there will continue to be a huge public health toll fromtobacco. The results from this new analysis will be useful to states as they determine theoverall public health benefits from increasing the state excise tax and consider fundingfor comprehensive tobacco control programs