Early life growth trajectories and future risk for overweight

Objective: Standard approaches have found that rapid growth during the first 2 years of life is a risk factor for overweight in later childhood. Our objective was to test whether growth velocity, independent of concurrent size, was associated with overweight using a nonlinear random-effects model that allows for enhanced specifications and estimations.Methods: Longitudinal data from a birth cohort in Mexico (n=586) were used to estimate growth trajectories over 0–24 months for body mass index (BMI), length and weight using the SuperImposition by Translation and Rotation (SITAR) models. The SITAR models use a nonlinear random-effects model to estimate an average growth curve for BMI, length and weight and each participant’s deviation from this curve on three dimensions—size, velocity and timing of peak velocity. We used logistic regression to estimate the association between overweight status at 7–9 years and size, velocity and timing of BMI, length and weight trajectories during 0–24 months. We tested whether any association between velocity and overweight varied by relative size during 0–24 months or birth weight.Results: SITAR models explained the majority of the variance in BMI (73%), height (86%) and weight (85%) between 0–24 months. When analyzed individually, relative BMI/length/weight (size) and BMI/length/weight velocity during 0–24 months were each associated with increased odds of overweight in late childhood. Associations for timing of peak velocity varied by anthropometric measure. However, in the mutually adjusted models, only relative BMI/length/weight (size) remained statistically significant. We found no evidence that any association between velocity and overweight varied by size during 0–24 months or birth weight.Conclusions: After mutual adjustment, size during 0–24 months of life (as opposed to birth size), but not velocity or timing of peak velocity, was most consistently associated with overweight in later childhood