The Wind Before the Storm: Aging, Automation, and the Disability Crisis

A substantial and growing share of the working age population of the advanced economies receives disability benefits. The causes of disability benefit expansion can primarily be attributed to an aging population and the deterioration of the low-skilled labor market due largely to technological change – challenges that also promise to strain other social welfare programs in the future. Using contemporary international disability benefit reforms as a case study, this dissertation argues that a new welfare state settlement is needed that no longer assumes a sustainable male breadwinner economy. The first chapter traces the history of disability benefits and argues that the traditional model for disability determination is ill suited for the post-industrial era. The second chapter provides a comparative policy analysis of major reforms to the disability determination processes in Denmark, Great Britain, and the Netherlands that shifts away from the traditional model and to a model focusing on work-capacity. The third chapter explores the relevance of disability policies in 17 OECD countries that attempt to integrate people with disabilities into the labor market and to reduce reliance on disability benefits. The dissertation concludes by summarizing the analyses and by returning to the major argument concerning the search for new policy solutions in the post-industrial welfare state