Weather Augmented Risk Determination (WARD) System

ABSTRACT OF THE THESISWeather Augmented Risk Determination (WARD) SystemByMohsen NiknejadMaster of Science in Civil and Environmental EngineeringUniversity of California, Irvine, 2015Professor Amir AghaKouchak, ChairExtreme climatic events have direct (e.g., physical damage) and indirect impacts (e.g., low airquality caused by a dry spell) on society, economy and the environment. Based on the UnitedStates Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data, over one third of the U.S. GDP can beconsidered as weather-sensitive involving some degree of weather risk. This expands from alocal scale concrete foundation construction to large scale transportation systems. Extreme andunexpected weather conditions have always been considered as one of the probable risks tohuman health, productivity and activities. The construction industry is a large sector of theeconomy, and is also greatly influenced by weather-related risks including work stoppage andlow labor productivity. Identification and quantification of these risks, and providing mitigationof their effects are always the concerns of construction project managers. In addition to severeweather conditions’ destructive effects, seasonal changes in weather conditions can also havenegative impacts on human health. Work stoppage and reduced labor productivity can be causedby precipitation, wind, temperature, relative humidity and other weather conditions. Historicaland project-specific weather information can improve better project management and mitigation viiiplanning, and ultimately reduce the risk of weather-related conditions. This thesis proposes newsoftware for project-specific user-defined data analysis that offers (a) probability of workstoppage and the estimated project length considering weather conditions; (b) information onreduced labor productivity and its impacts on project duration; and (c) probabilistic informationon the project timeline based on both weather-related work stoppage and labor productivity. Thesoftware (WARD System) is designed such that it can be integrated into the already availableproject management tools. While the system and presented application focuses on theconstruction industry, the developed software is general and can be used for any application thatinvolves labor productivity (e.g., farming) and work stoppage due to weather conditions (e.g.,transportation, agriculture industry). The system is designed to offer work stoppage and laborproductivity information based on user-defined weather conditions