Habitat suitability through time: Using time series and habitat models to understand changes in bird density

Confronted with a rapidly changing world and limited resources for conservation, ecologists are increasingly challenged with predicting the impact of climate and land-use change on wildlife. A common approach is to use habitat-suitability models (HSMs) to explain aspects of species' occurrence, such as presence, abundance, and distribution, utilizing physical habitat characteristics. Although HSMs are useful, they are limited because they are typically created using spatial rather than temporal data, which omits temporal dynamics. We explored the value of combining spatial and temporal approaches by comparing HSMs with autoregressive population models. We investigated a 28-year period of bird community dynamics at a field site in northern California during which time the plant community has been transitioning from scrub to conifer forest.We used the two model frameworks to quantify the contribution of vegetation change, weather, and population processes (autoregressive models only) to variation in density of seven bird species over the first 23 years. Model predictive ability was then tested using the subsequent five years of population density data. HSMs explained 58% to 90% of the deviance in species' density. However, models that included density dependence in addition to vegetation covariates provided a better fit to the data for three of the seven species, Song Sparrow (Melospiza melodia), White-crowned Sparrow (Zonotrichia leucophrys), andWrentit (Chamaea fasciata). These three species have more localized dispersal compared to the other four species, suggesting that dispersal tendency may be an important life-history trait to consider when predicting the impact of climate and land-use change on population levels. Our results suggest that HSMs can effectively explain and predict variation in species' densities through time, however for species with localized dispersal, it may be especially informative to include population processes. © 2014 Porzig et al