The Ability of Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging to Predict Heavy Drinking and Alcohol Problems 5 Years Later.

BackgroundLow levels of alcohol responses (low LRs) are genetically influenced phenotypes that are identified before alcohol dependence and predict future heavy drinking and alcohol problems. A recent paper described 13 LR-related blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) response contrast patterns observed during an emotional face recognition task that might reflect cognitive processes contributing to LR and that might themselves predict adverse alcohol outcomes (Paulus et al., Biol Psychiatry 2012; 72: 848). This paper evaluates the predictive implications of those functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) patterns.MethodsOf 120 subjects from Paulus and colleagues (2012), 114 (57 low and high LRs; ~50% females) were interviewed 5 years later at age 25. Correlations between baseline fMRI patterns and alcohol-related outcomes were evaluated, and regression analyses were used to determine if BOLD response contrasts incremented over LR in predicting outcomes.ResultsBaseline fMRI patterns in 5 of 13 baseline regions of interest correlated with adverse outcomes. Such patterns in insular regions, particularly the left anterior insula, and the right frontal gyrus, added to LR in predicting alcohol problems. The relationships remained robust when exact binomial procedures were used, but, reflecting the small sample size, it was not possible to adequately consider Bonferroni corrections.ConclusionsThe data suggest that fMRI BOLD response contrasts predicted heavier drinking and alcohol problems 5 years later, even after considering baseline low LRs. Future work will focus on whether fMRI results can predict outcomes in larger samples and among young nondrinkers, as well as how the imaging results increase understanding of the processes through which LR operates