A Time-Varying Model of Risk for Predicting Recidivism Among Women Offenders Over 3 Years Following Their Release From Jail

This study examines time-varying gender-responsive and gender-neutral predictors of recidivism over 3 years using baseline and quarterly follow-up interviews with 477 women released from a county jail. Of the 55 time-varying predictors tested in the longitudinal analysis, 39 were significant predictors of recidivism (new arrest or incarceration) even after controlling for baseline fixed predictors. Stepwise multivariate analysis simplified the model to 12 significant variables, including three time-varying variables associated with reduced risk of recidivism (custody of one’s children, self-help activity, environmental support), eight time-varying variables associated with increased risk of recidivism (illegal activity, type of crime, problems with probation/parole, days in jail/prison, number of sexual partners, past-year trauma, problem orientation, external pressure), and the composite measure of risk from baseline. These findings support the development of post-release re-entry services tailored for female offenders that address both gender-responsive and gender-neutral criminogenic risk factors