Critical Components of Uncertainty Communication in Life Cycle Assessments of Emerging Technologies: Nanotechnology as a Case Study

Because of their recognition as a comprehensive tool of environmental assessments and their increasing use by governments and industries, life cycle assessments (LCAs) are positioned to be prominent sources of mass media information on new products and technologies. The LCA studies underlying media reports are often viewed by nonexperts after the initial reporting. However, uncertainty is rife in early assessments of emerging technologies, and LCA's ability to inform environmental opinions and decisions is limited without the accompanying communication on uncertainty. Though approaches to the technical aspects of uncertainty analysis in LCA are available in the literature, those on communicating that uncertainty, in ways that are cognitively accessible to the nonexperts, are still lacking despite their highlighted importance across various disciplines. With the focus on communication, this article uses the existing literature to derive five criteria for making uncertainty communication accessible to a nonexpert audience. Then, LCAs on engineered nanomaterial (ENM) and ENM-enabled products, as a case study of emerging technologies where uncertainties abound, are reviewed for whether they meet these five criteria. The study concludes with recommendations for communicating uncertainty in LCAs in order to enhance their role as decision- and public opinion-informing assessments