Using hotspot analysis to prioritize security efforts in Colombian critical infrastructure, a focus on the power grid

To effectively protect critical infrastructure, it is essential to identify vulnerable areas for priority protection. The use of geographic information systems has increased over the last few decades for crime activity and the identification of delinquency hotspots. This study analyzes the areas of a power grid that are exposed to a higher than the average risk of terrorist attacks. One of the concerns for operation managers and policy makers is that subversive groups may have “inside” information to perform the attacks and create a critical failure that puts more pressure on the operational condition of the power grid. We use exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) and information from the Colombian power grid to prompt the question: why hotspots emerge in some parts of the power grid, but not in others? The theoretical framework of attacks in the power grid operation exists but need to be corroborated with historical events that reflect such possible way of action. To this end, we perform a Getis-Ord Gi* hotspot analysis to direct attention to areas that are both under attack and critical in terms of operational risks that could affect the reliability and provision of critical services such as power generation and distribution. This subnational case study of Colombia uses data from XM and InterColombia (managers and operators of the Colombian power grid) to identify the areas of electrical infrastructure that have been most attacked and explain the motivations at the local level that the subversive groups have had to attack these areas