Transboundary Animal Diseases and their Likelihood to be Used in an Agroterrorist Attack on the United States

All data and information contained in this investigation are open source and publically available. The assessment uses six different transboundary animal diseases which are not currently routine occurrences in the United States and through analytic methods, assesses the likelihood that each might be used in an agroterrorist attack on the United States\u27 animal production sector. The assessment examines each disease using key details that would directly affect the likelihood of its use in an attack, focusing on potential economic damage. The three main animal populations considered are bovine, swine, and poultry due to their large size and value in domestic and international markets. Information was gathered through several sources. The data on each disease relies heavily on the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and several accredited schools of veterinary medicine. Most distribution data was accessed from the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) and the World Health Organization (WHO). Where appropriate, the USDA\u27s own lists were also included. Additional data were accessed from various sources including bioterrorism books, news sources, and legal documents. This study concludes that based on several variables, the foot and mouth disease virus is the most likely transboundary animal disease to be used by a terrorist organization in an economic agroterrorist attack on the United States. Rankings: I. Foot and mouth disease (FMD) 2. High pathogenicity avian influenza (H5Nl) 3. African swine fever (ASF) 4. Classical swine fever (CSF) 5. Exotic newcastle disease (END) 6. Mad cow disease (BSE) Key Assumptions: • This report deals with terrorist or rogue actors and not nation states. • The attack\u27s goals are mostly economical in nature and not centered on directly threatening human life. l A rational actor is involved who would use a similar process to evaluate the effectiveness of different pathogens