Patterns of Intra-Election Volatility, Political Knowledge, and Media Exposure

One key trend changing political environments across advanced industrial democracies is increasing electoral volatility. Despite extensive research, at the individual level we still know relatively little about the mechanisms behind electoral volatility during election campaigns (intra-election volatility). This includes the impact of political knowledge and political news exposure. Against this background and based on a four-wave panel study in the context of the 2014 Swedish national election, the purpose of this paper is to investigate (a) patterns of intra-election volatility and the impact of (b) political knowledge and (c) political news exposure on patterns of electoral volatility. Distinguishing between party alienation, crystallization, wavering, reinforcement, and conversion, among other things, findings show some effects from offline political news exposure on patterns of electoral volatility but none from stored or acquired political knowledge. PLEASE NOTE: THE FINAL VERSION OF THIS PAPER IS PUBLISHED AS: Geers, Sabine & Strömbäck, Jesper (2018). Patterns of Intra-Election Volatility: The Impact of Political Knowledge. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, online early.