Study of historical groundwater level changes in two Belgian chalk aquifers in the context of climate change impacts

peer reviewedIn southern Belgium, 23% of abstracted groundwater volumes are from chalk aquifers, representing strategic resources for the region. Due to their specific nature, these chalk aquifers often exhibit singular behaviour and require specific analysis. The quantitative evolution of these groundwater resources is analysed for the Mons Basin and Hesbaye chalk aquifers as a function of past evolution, in the short and long term. Groundwater level time series exhibit decreases when analysed over different periods. This is particularly visible for the Hesbaye chalk aquifer when comparing the 1960–90 and 1990–2020 periods. Such decreases are associated with observed temperature increases and precipitation decreases, inducing a decrease of aquifer recharge, and a probable increase of groundwater abstraction in the adjacent catchment. Past evolution is also discussed considering recent winter and summer drought events. The aquifers exhibit long delays in response to recharge events, particularly where the thickness of the partially saturated zone plays a crucial role in observed delays. Regarding future evolution, simulations of the impact of climate changes using medium–high emission scenarios indicate a probable decrease of the groundwater levels over the Hesbaye chalk aquifer