Passenger car cost development through 2050

For passenger cars, various powertrains compete in terms of reducing environmentally-harmful emissions, smooth integration into future energy systems and economic performance. Developing a sound long-term projection of the total cost of ownership (TCO), however, remains challenging. Highlights of our present assessment, include a detailed, component-based manufacturing and operating cost analysis, as well as simulation-based component scaling and fuel consumption analysis. We apply this methodology to eight passenger car concepts based on batteries, fuel cells and combustion engines, spanning four passenger car segments and five different market development scenarios through 2050. With respect to the TCO, our analysis reveals that fully-electric powertrains utilizing batteries (BEVs) and fuel cells (FCEVs) offer the lowest-cost solutions. FCEVs exhibit small but robust benefits compared to BEVs. BEVs will undergo the earliest break-even point with internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), already before 2030. Different market development scenarios would not significantly affect the long-term results