Application of ARIMA models in forecasting monthly average surface temperature of Brong Ahafo Region of Ghana

The state of global pandemonium of the [1] report on climate change has necessitated much research interest on the issue. The application of statistical techniques is crucial in understanding phenomena and greatly influences decision making. ARIMA (1,0,0) (0,1,2)(12) with AIC = 0.07868287, AICc = 0.08430456, BIC = -0.8801646 and σ2 = 0.3898) has been identified as an appropriate model for predicting monthly average surface temperature for the Brong Ahafo (BA) Region of Ghana using 1975 to 2009 data from the Department of Meteorology and Climatology in the BA Region. The average surface temperature observed lies between 23°C and 32°C for the Brong Ahafo region all year. The month of February records the highest average surface temperature in the region, with July and August sharing spot as the months that usually record the lowest average surface temperature. The mean yearly surface temperature over the period was quite erratic however a decreasing trend was from 2007 to 2009. It is the hope that when adopted by the Ghana Metrological Agency and other relevant governmental organisations, it will in the long run help in accurate forecasting and education of the populace on surface temperature