MISSION-INFORMED EVACUATION MODELS FOR NAVAL STATION NEWPORT AND AQUIDNECK ISLAND

During major hurricanes, key roads and facilities for military missions can become disrupted and unreachable. This is compounded with local evacuation orders that require nearby communities and military personnel to quickly leave the area. Yet, many military installations and municipalities do not coordinate their evacuation plans, leading to major traffic jams that further disrupt operations on and off base. In this work, we develop a mathematical model and a robust data set of roads, at-risk populations, and evacuation destinations to analyze optimal evacuation for Naval Station (NAVSTA) Newport and surrounding communities on Aquidneck Island. Our work informs possible prioritization of evacuation for all at-risk populations—civilian and military—and identifies critical infrastructure that can assist in minimizing the total evacuation clearance time for Aquidneck Island. Analysis in this thesis was used to advise emergency operations at NAVSTA Newport prior to landfall of Hurricane Henri in New England in August 2021.Outstanding ThesisLieutenant Commander, United States NavyApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited