Shedding light on the link between the spatial distribution of eggs and survival in Northeast Arctic cod

Spreading the offspring in space and time may offer bet-hedging benefits by buffering environmental influences on parts of the offspring distribution. It has previously been shown that high mean age and size of spawners in the Northeast Arctic stock of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) is positively associated with high abundance and wide spatiotemporal distribution of eggs. However, little support has been found for a wide egg distribution acting as a buffer against environmental influences by leading to higher mean or less variable recruitment. The lacking relation between egg distribution and recruitment can be due to data limitation or alternatively that wide egg distributions may be of limited relevance for survival in later stages. To investigate these two alternatives, we analysed the output from a mechanistic coupled physical–biological drift model that projected the abundance of juvenile cod on the nursing grounds in the Barents Sea from empirically estimated egg distributions. The projections were performed with initial egg distributions reflecting the expected distributions at high and low mean weight of the spawners. We found that the extended distribution at the fringes only marginally contributed to recruitment, as a large proportion of the extra eggs at high mean age and size of spawners did not reach suitable nursing areas or failed to grow to a suitable size by the end of the season. In conclusion, our results suggest that the buffering effect of a geographically wide distribution of spawning products is insignificant compared to other effects on recruitment