The role of very large passenger aircraft in global air transport - a review and outlook to the year 2050

Aviation history has shown an increase in aircraft size in every generation, culminating in the Airbus A380 with a typical capacity of 450 to 600 seats. However, this trend may have come to a halt, as the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the retirement of very large aircraft. Already before the pandemic, airlines had begun to switch to more efficient, but smaller, twin-engine widebody aircraft like Airbus 350 and Boeing 787, and Airbus and Boeing had ceased the production of their largest aircraft types. As a result, in a post-COVID world, airlines will have to rely on aircraft considerably smaller than previously. In our paper, we analyze the operational history of very large passenger aircraft and discuss the economic challenges operating these aircraft. Furthermore, we provide a short-, medium and long-term view on strategies for airlines to cope with a situation where very large passenger aircraft will not be available any longer. We argue, that in the short term, airlines can react to this situation with revenue management techniques, effectively crowding out passengers with the least willingness to pay. In the medium term, airlines are likely to react with changing network strategies. New aircraft that will become available in the near future will allow airlines to operate ultra-long-haul routes and long-haul routes on airport pairs with lower demand. In the long term, we argue that aircraft manufacturers may have to re-consider their product portfolio, given the long-term growth prospects of aviation, capacity constraints at major airports and a preference of larger aircraft by airlines in their pursuit to reduce unit costs. Hence, despite the current arguments against very large passenger aircraft, a renaissance of this aircraft class might emerge in the next decades