Case study 3: Sampling grain based on detection thresholds: implications for integrated pest management (Project - CRC 30086)

Integrated Pest Management (IPM) strategies lead to the cost effective management of pests in stored grains. Although significant advances have been made in fumigation technologies, storage types and insecticide treatment regimes worldwide, numerous countries still do not have a single cohesive integrated approach to pest management. This in part is due to the lack of simple, robust statistical sampling techniques for use in IPM, for example to detect insects at a pre-determined treatment threshold. In this study we extend theory previously developed in this project to consider detection thresholds of greater than zero, and show that this provides a sound basis for IPM decisions. Using a case study we demonstrate that setting a treatment threshold for fumigation of grain and using the new methodology for sampling can reduce the number of fumigations applied and thus substantially cut costs by up 17% depending on environmental conditions. The new methods we have developed and present in this report provide an important step towards evidence based IPM in Australia