AVALIAÇÃO DE ÁREAS ELEGÍVEIS À IMPLANTAÇÃO DE PROJETOS DE MDL FLORESTAIS NA BACIA DO RIO PARDO, EM MINAS GERAIS

Forests are key to climate regulation. Based on this principle, an instrument was proposed in Kyoto, Japan – the Clean Development Mechanism – CDM – through which developed countries can meet their emission reduction goals by forestry projects financing in developing countries. For this, the starting point is to assess the CO2 sequestration potential. In this sense, the objective of the present work was to evaluate the CO2 sequestration potential and carbon credits generation through forestry CDM projects in the Pardo river basin, Minas Gerais state. The methodology consisted of mapping the eligible and suitable areas for projects implementation, through orbital images multitemporal analysis, and the simulation of forest restoration and reforestation scenarios with eucalyptus species. For forest restoration projects, the CO2 sequestration potential is about 10,215,818 t, in 20 years, which could generate more than US $ 102 million in carbon credits. For reforestation, the CO2 sequestration potential is about 12 million tons in six years, and would generate about US $ 120 million. A mixed scenario, with projects in both modalities, was considered ideal for the basin.No Protocolo de Quito, ratificado em 1997, foi proposto um instrumento de mitigação climática - o Mecanismo de Desenvolvimento Limpo (MDL) - em que países desenvolvidos podem cumprir suas metas de redução de emissões financiando projetos florestais em países em desenvolvimento. O ponto de partida consiste na avaliação do potencial de sequestro de CO2 de áreas elegíveis. Nesse sentido, o objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar o potencial de sequestro CO2 e de geração de créditos de carbono na bacia do Rio Pardo, MG, a partir de projetos de MDL florestais. A metodologia consistiu no mapeamento das áreas elegíveis à implantação de projetos, via análise multitemporal de imagens orbitais, e na simulação de cenários de restauração florestal e reflorestamento com eucalipto. Para restauração florestal, o potencial de sequestro de CO2 foi de, aproximadamente, 10.215.818 Mg, em 20 anos, podendo gerar mais de US$102 milhões em créditos de carbono. Para reflorestamento, o potencial de sequestro de CO2 foi de, aproximadamente, 12.000.000 Mg, em seis anos, e geraria cerca de US$120.000.000. Um cenário misto foi considerado o ideal para a bacia e a metodologia adotada é viável para avaliação em caráter prospectivo, podendo ser consolidada com a utilização de parâmetros locais de biomassa. Palavras-chave: mudanças climáticas; florestas; sequestro de carbono; geoprocessamento. Evaluation of eligible areas for forest CDM projects implementation in the Pardo River basin, in Minas Gerais, Brazil ABSTRACT: An instrument for climate changes mitigation was proposed in Kyoto Protocol, ratified in 1997 – the Clean Development Mechanism – CDM – through which developed countries can meet their emission reduction goals by forestry projects financing in developing countries. For this, the starting point is to assess the CO2 sequestration potential of the eligible areas. In this sense, the objective of the present work was to evaluate the CO2 sequestration potential and carbon credits generation through forestry CDM projects in the Pardo river basin, Minas Gerais state. The methodology consisted of mapping the eligible and suitable areas for projects implementation, through orbital images multitemporal analysis, and the simulation of forest restoration and reforestation scenarios with eucalyptus species. For forest restoration projects, the CO2 sequestration potential is about 10,215,818 Mg, in 20 years, which could generate more than US $ 102,000,000 in carbon credits. For reforestation, the CO2 sequestration potential is about 12,000,000 Mg in six years, and would generate about US $ 120,000,000. A mixed scenario, with projects in both modalities, was considered ideal for the basin and the proposed methodology is feasible for prospective evaluation, and can be consolidated using local biomass parameters. Keywords: climatic change; forests; carbon sequestration; geoprocessing