REALNA KONVERGENCIJA U EUROPSKOJ UNIJI U SVJETLU KORONA KRIZE : Završni rad

Cilj ovog rada je bio proučiti stupanj realne konvergencije u Europskoj uniji i zaključiti o utjecaju aktualne korona krize na proces realne konvergencije. U tu svrhu su sa Eurostat baze podataka preuzeti podaci o bruto domaćem proizvodu po stanovniku (BDP per capita), izraženom u paritetu kupovne moći. Ovaj pokazatelj eliminira razlike u cijenama između zemalja čineći podatke bolje usporedivima. Podaci za ovu ekonomsku varijablu su preuzeti za period od 2004. do 2020. godine. Za prvu godinu je odabrana 2004. godina jer je to godina velikog proširenja Europske unije kada je u uniju ušlo čak deset zemalja koje su bile na značajno nižim razinama ekonomskog razvoja u odnosu na postojeće članice. Za posljednju godinu je odabrana 2020. godina, jer je to prva godina krize u EU, uzorkovana pandemijom korona virusa. Zaključak samostalnog istraživanja je da u Europskoj uniji zaista postoji efekt dostizanja (eng. catching-up effect) jer one nerazvijenije članice Europske unije rastu po većim stopama od njenih razvijenijih članica. Međutim, disperzija u dohocima je i dalje jako velika te je proces konvergencije po tom pitanju jako spor. Također, značajne razlike u procesu sigma konvergencije, kada se promatraju zasebno skupina novih članica i skupina svih članica, ukazuju na potencijalno postojanje barem dva konvergencijska kluba. Konačno, kriza uzrokovana virusom covid-19 je dovela do divergencije samo kada se promatraju sve članice unije zajedno.This paper aimed to study the degree of real convergence in the European Union and conclude on the impact of the current corona crisis on the process of real convergence. To this end, data on gross domestic product per capita, expressed in purchasing power parity, were downloaded from the Eurostat database. This indicator eliminates price differences between countries, making the data more comparable. Data for this economic variable were downloaded for the period from 2004 to 2020. 2204 was selected for the first year because it was the year of the great enlargement of the European Union when ten countries entered the union, which were at significantly lower levels of economic development than the existing members. 2020 was selected for the last year of the observed period as it is the first year of the crisis in the EU caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Independent research concludes that there is a catching-up effect in the European Union because those more underdeveloped members of the European Union are growing at higher rates than its more developed members. However, the dispersion in incomes is still very high, and the convergence process in this regard is very slow. Also, significant differences in the process of sigma convergence, when viewed separately by a group of new members and groups of all members, indicate the potential existence of at least two convergence clubs. Finally, the covid-19 crisis has led to divergence only when all members of the Union are looked at together