Spatial Differentiation of the Long-Term Residence Intention of the Urban Floating Population and Its Influencing Factors: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration

The citizenization of the floating population is a primary task of the people-centered new urbanization. Taking the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration as an example, this paper analyzes the spatial distribution and influencing factors of the long-term residence intention of the urban floating population using a multilevel logistic regression method. The findings were as follows. (1) The proportion of the floating population with long-term residence intention was 38.09% in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration. Cities with the highest and higher proportions of long-term residence intention were mainly concentrated in Anhui Province in the west of the urban agglomeration and the Shanghai-Nanjing development axis, while the floating population that migrated to Zhejiang Province generally had medium and low residence intention. The spatial difference of the long-term residence intention of the floating population was different from that of the floating population size. As for the types of floating population, for most cities in the coastal provinces, their floating populations were comprised mainly of inter-provincial migrants. Shanghai and Zhejiang Province, especially, were the main destinations of inter-provincial migrants. Anhui was a typical area of population outflow, and the floating population staying there was made up mainly of intra-provincial migrants. (2) The rent-to-income ratio had a significant negative effect on the long-term residence intention of the floating population. Among the personal and family factors, high education, social and psychological identity, and affordable housing were strong motivating factors, but working in the labor-intensive sector had a strong negative effect on long-term residence intention. Among the factors of the destination cities, megacities strongly influenced the long-term residence intention of the floating population. (3) The housing rent was positively related to the long-term residence intention in the Yangtze River Delta, while the average income of residents in the city did not promote the long-term residence intention of the floating population. Migrant age was negatively correlated with their long-term residence intention. These are new findings of the study. (4) The influencing factors of the long-term residence intention of the floating population varied according to the city size. Age and inter-provincial migration were the limiting factors for long-term residence intention in general cities, but they were not significant in megacities. The long-term residence intention in megacities was more related to high education and employment type. This indicates that megacities are more inclusive of inter-provincial migrants and friendly to various ages; migrants' residence intention in megacities depends more on personal qualities and employability. Besides, the average income level of the destination city only had a negative effect on the residence intention in general cities