Predictive potential of biomarkers and risk scores for major adverse cardiac events in elderly patients undergoing major elective vascular surgery

Elderly patients scheduled for major elective vascular surgery are at high risk for a major adverse cardiac events (MACE). The objectives of the study were: (1) To determine the individual discriminatory ability of four risk prediction models and four biomarkers in predicting MACEs in elderly patients undergoing major elective vascular surgery; (2) to find a prognostic model with the best characteristics; (3) to examine the significance of all preoperative parameters; and (4) to determine optimal cut-off values for biomarkers with best predictor capabilities. We enrolled 144 geriatric patients, aged 69.97 ± 3.73 years, with a 2:1 male to female ratio. Essential inclusion criteria were open major vascular surgery and age >65 years. The primary outcome was the appearance of MACEs within 6 months. These were noted in 33 (22.9%) patients. The most frequent cardiac event was decompensated heart failure, which occurred in 22 patients (15.3%). New onset atrial fibrillation was registered in 13 patients (9%), and both myocardial infarction and ventricular arrhythmias occurred in eight patients each (5.5%). Excellent discriminatory ability (AUC >0.8) was observed for all biomarker combinations that included the N-terminal fragment of pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP). The most predictive two-variable combination was the Geriatric-Sensitive Cardiac Risk Index (GSCRI) + NT-proBNP (AUC of 0.830 with a 95% confidence interval). Female gender, previous coronary artery disease, and NT-proBNP were three independent predictors in a multivariate model of binary logistic regression. The Cox regression multivariate model identified high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and NT-proBNP as the only two independent predictors